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Sunday, 14 October 2012

Back-tracking faster than you reverse

kill boerHT: MP

We have been saying for years that farmers are specifically targeted in farm murders in South Africa.  And always had crack-head liberals accuse us of racism, extremism and so forth.  Some of these liberals just have an axe to grind because they were chased away like dogs from the blogs they contributed to.  Either for doing the stuff they accuse us of, specifically vile language (sometimes aimed at other races) and being two-faced bastards with hidden agendas.

Now the South African Institute of Race Relations had to back-track on initially reporting that the number of attacks per 100,000 farmers is no worse than attacks per 100,000 of the general population.  But in true propaganda spirit, their back-track manoeuvre is published in Afrikaans media, so limiting the truth to those who understand Afrikaans.  We have even reported on this before, that the majority of farm murders is only ever reported in Afrikaans media, thereby limiting international exposure.  See “One farm attack per day”

I will place both articles with translation of the 2nd revised report of the institute in English where important.

Initial report from IOL News:

‘Violent attacks not unique to farmers’

Johannesburg - Farmers are not uniquely vulnerable to armed attacks, the SA Institute of Race Relations said on Friday.

“The analysis of statistics did not indicate that farm attacks were not a problem,” the institute's CEO Frans Cronje said.

“Rather it revealed just how vulnerable all South Africans are to violent crime.”

The number of farm attacks per 100 000 farmers and their families was comparable to the number of criminal attacks per 100 000 people in the general population.

According to an analysis of farm attack data collected by farmers' union TAU, there were 108 confirmed attacks in 1994, and 85 in 2011.

The highest number of farm attacks occurred in 2002, with 229 across the country. The lowest number was 70 in 1996.

In 2011, the number of attacks per 100,000 farmers and farmworkers in the formal sector was 16.8.

If it was assumed that farmworkers were not targeted, and that attacks were aimed at commercial farmers and their families only, the rate of attack was 45.8 per 100,000 (assuming three dependants each).

The rates calculated were broadly comparable to rates per 100 000 people for other serious crimes among the general population.

In 2011, South Africa had a murder rate of 31.9 per 100 000 people. The house robbery rate was 33.4 per 100 000.

The total aggravated robbery rate was 203 per 100 000 people. – Sapa

 

Now for the truth

from Afrikaans media outlet Rapport:

‘Jammer boere, julle ís in gevaar’ – ‘Sorry farmers, you ARE in danger’

Boere voer ’n gevaarlike bestaan, maar daar was nog nooit sekerheid oor hóé gevaarlik nie.

Navorsing deur die Suid-Afrikaanse Instituut vir Rasseverhoudinge bied nou antwoorde.

Die navorsing het aanvanklik voorgestel boere is nie noodwendig blootgestel aan ’n groter risiko vir misdaadaanvalle nie. Dié navorsing is egter gegrond op onvoldoende data van TLU SA wat die getal plaasaanvalle tot sewe keer onderskat het.  The research initially suggested that farmers are not necessarily exposed to higher risk of criminal attacks.  This research was based on insufficient data from TLU SA which underestimated the number of farm attacks up to 7 times.

Ons het die navorsing dus weer gedoen en nuwe gevolgtrekkings gemaak.  Thus we did the research again and came to new conclusions.

Ten einde te bepaal hoe gevaarlik dit is om ’n boer te wees, is dit nodig om die aantal plaasaanvalle per 100 000 boere en gesinslede te vergelyk met die aantal misdaadaanvalle per 100 000 mense in die breër bevolking.

Ons navorsing dui nou daarop dat daar in 2011 tot 422 plaasaanvalle per 100 000 boere en hul gesinslede was.  Our research now indicates that in 2011 there were up to 422 farm attacks per 100,000 farmers and family members.  Hierdie syfer moet dus vergelyk word met die aantal misdaadaanvalle op ander landsburgers.

Ons het eerstens die koers van gewapende huisrooftogte met plaasaanvalle vergelyk.  In 2011 was daar 33 huisrooftogte vir elke 100 000 mense in die breër bevolking.  Firstly we compared the rate of armed home burglaries with farm attacks.  In 2011 there were 33 home burglaries per 100,000 people in the general population.

Teen hierdie maatstaf was boere se kanse om aangeval te word dus 13 keer groter as ander landsburgers s’n.  This benchmark puts the risk of farmers being attacked at 13 times of that of the general population.

Tweedens het ons die voorvalle van gewapende rooftogte oor die algemeen met plaasaanvalle vergelyk.  Dié koers meet álle gewapende rooftogte in die land en nie net huisrooftogte nie.  In 2011 was daar 200 gewapende rooftogte vir elke 100 000 mense in die land. Teen dié maatstaf was dit dus twee keer meer waarskynlik dat ’n boer aangeval sou word.  Secondly we compared cases of armed robbery in general with farm attacks.  This rate measures all armed robberies and not only armed home burglaries.  In 2011 there were 200 armed robberies per 100,000 people in the country.  Against this benchmark, it was twice as likely for a farmer to be attacked.  (Own comment – I regard this as bullshit statistic.  Twice as many doesn’t sound as bad as 13 times, right?  But how can you compare farm attacks, i.e. farmers attacked at home on farms with all armed robberies, which will include things like car hi-jacks on public roads, armed bank robberies, muggings, etc?  If that farmer happens to be driving in town and hi-jacked, he is part of that statistic too.  This measurement again downplays farm attacks.)

Selfs toe ons die syfers vir moord en poging tot moord by dié van die gewapende rooftogte oor die algemeen gevoeg het, was dit steeds 1,6 keer meer waarskynlik dat boere aangeval sou word.

Die syfer van 422 plaasaanvalle per 100 000 boere en hul gesinslede sluit wel aanvalle op kleinhoewes in.

Maar selfs toe ons aanvalle op kleinhoewes uitgesluit het, was boere steeds meer kwesbaar vir plaasaanvalle as wat gewone landsburgers vir huisrooftogte en ander rooftogte is.

Ons het ook vergelykings tussen die moordkoers op boere en dié op ander landsburgers getref.

Die navorsing dui daarop dat daar in 2011 tot 68 uit elke 100 000 boere in die land vermoor is. Die moordsyfer in die breër bevolking was 31 per 100 000.  The research indicates that in 2011 farmers were murdered at a rate of 68 per 100,000.  The murder rate for general population was 31 per 100,000.

’n Boer se kanse om vermoor te word was dus twee keer meer waarskynlik as ’n gewone landsburger se kans om vermoor te word.  A farmer’s risk of being murdered is thus twice that of general citizens.

’n Mens kan net een gevolgtrekking maak. Dit is dat boere aan ’n hoër vlak van geweldmisdaad blootgestel is as ander landsburgers.  A person can only come to one conclusion.  Farmers are exposed to higher levels of violent crime than other citizens.

Lesers moet ook in ag neem dat ons nasionale moordkoers 500% hoër is as dié van die VSA en tot 3?000% hoër as dié van lande soos Duitsland en Australië.

Ons boere word dus deur ’n geweldige aanslag in die gesig gestaar.  Our farmers are thus experiencing a massive onslaught.

Ons vra om verskoning aan die boeregemeenskap dat ons oorspronklike navorsing – wat op onvolledige data gegrond was – ’n ander indruk gewek het.  We apologise to the farming community that our initial research, which was based on incomplete data, gave a different impression.

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